Bali hotel market split: Sanur strengthens while Ubud faces absorption pressure

Denpasar — Bali’s hotel market remained historically strong in 2025 with an average occupancy of 73.2%, but recent analytical reports point to sharply divergent conditions between destinations, with Sanur showing the firmest demand momentum and Ubud facing weaker room-night absorption alongside a sizeable construction pipeline, according to Horwath HTL and PT Hotel Investment Advisory.

Horwath HTL, working with the Bali Hotels Association and C9 Hotelworks, reported that overall occupancy averaged 73.2% in 2025, easing about 2.5 percentage points from 2024’s elevated level. The same analysis found that the average daily rate increased by around 2.4% in rupiah terms to roughly IDR 2.4 million, while revenue per available room was broadly flat in rupiah.

These headline figures describe an island-wide market that has stayed resilient even as growth in room supply and changing travel patterns create markedly different risk profiles across Bali’s main hotel submarkets.

The key figures

• 73.2%: Bali’s average hotel occupancy in 2025, according to Horwath HTL’s Bali Hotel & Branded Residences 2026 report.
• 79.2%: Occupancy in Nusa Dua, the strongest submarket by occupancy in Horwath HTL’s performance table.
• +2.7 percentage points: Sanur’s current absorption balance in PT Hotel Investment Advisory’s Bali Hotel Market Risk & Absorption Monitor 2026, based on operating data through July 2026.
• -8.1 percentage points: Ubud’s absorption balance in the same monitor, indicating demand growth lagging supply growth over the past year.
• 5,641 rooms: Active pipeline across 45 hotels identified by Horwath HTL for Bali’s hotel market.

Sanur leads the current absorption picture

PT Hotel Investment Advisory defines its Absorption Balance as trailing-12-month occupied-room demand growth minus available-room supply growth. A positive balance means demand is expanding faster than available capacity; a negative balance indicates that supply is growing faster than demand or that demand is contracting relative to the existing room base.

Using operating data through July 2026, the monitor places Sanur at +2.7 percentage points, the strongest result among the destinations it reviews, followed by Jimbaran–Pecatu–Ungasan at +1.6 points. According to the same analysis, Sanur combines the healthiest recent demand momentum with strong occupancy and pricing, and is the only major locality with a clearly positive absorption balance.

HIA’s work further indicates that nearly 2,500 hotel rooms are under construction across Bali, with Ubud and Jimbaran–Pecatu–Ungasan among the largest contributors. For Jimbaran–Pecatu–Ungasan, the current issue is therefore less about demand weakness than how roughly 688 incoming rooms under construction could affect positioning, key accounts and pricing once they open.

Ubud has premium rates but weaker room-night demand

Horwath HTL’s report shows that Ubud achieved around 5.6% RevPAR growth, supported by an approximately 11% increase in ADR despite softer occupancy. At the same time, PT Hotel Investment Advisory’s monitor records an -8.1 percentage-point absorption balance for Ubud, meaning demand growth has not kept pace with supply growth over the last 12 months.

Umbrella Group’s summary of HIA’s findings notes that Ubud is expected to receive about 361 new rooms, primarily in upscale hotels and projects managed by international operators, with completion clustered between late 2026 and 2027. Together, these figures point to a destination that can sustain premium pricing characteristics while experiencing relatively weaker physical demand compared with its expanding room base.

HIA’s absorption balances are negative elsewhere as well, including Nusa Dua–Tanjung Benoa, Canggu–Seminyak, Kuta–Legian and the broader Bali Regional market, highlighting that oversupply risk is concentrated outside Sanur and Jimbaran–Pecatu–Ungasan.

Horwath HTL’s performance table shows Nusa Dua leading its submarkets on occupancy at 79.2%, helped by meetings, incentives, conferences and exhibitions demand as well as leisure travel, while Jimbaran and Uluwatu record the highest ADR at about IDR 4.8 million, reinforcing their premium positioning.

Pipeline totals require careful comparison

Horwath HTL reports an active pipeline of 5,641 rooms across 45 hotels, with Canggu, Jimbaran/Uluwatu and Ubud accounting for much of the development and more than half of the pipeline in the two highest rate categories. This suggests continued investor appetite for upscale and luxury products, and the potential for intensified competition at the top end of the market.

By contrast, HIA’s 2026 monitor focuses on rooms already under construction and identifies around 2,460 rooms in that category across Bali, including about 688 rooms in Jimbaran–Pecatu–Ungasan and 361 in Ubud. The available material does not allow a direct reconciliation between Horwath HTL’s broader active pipeline and HIA’s narrower construction snapshot, which likely apply different project scopes and development stages.

For investors, this distinction matters: projects counted in an active pipeline but still at early planning or financing stages do not pose the same near-term competitive pressure as schemes that are already under construction, while submarkets such as Sanur with limited new-build activity may enjoy more room to defend occupancy and pricing if demand growth persists.

Sources

• Horwath HTL – Bali Hotel & Branded Residences 2026 (PDF)
• Magnum Estate International – Bali Hotel Market 2026: 73.2% Occupancy, 5,641 Rooms Coming
• Aegora Strategy – Bali’s branded residences are selling the wrong thing
• Hotelier Indonesia – Bali Hotel Market Risk & Absorption Monitor 2026
• Umbrella Group – Nearly 2,500 New Hotel Rooms Under Construction in Bali
• Balidiscovery – Bali Hotel Trends: Sanur Strengthens While Ubud and Other Areas Face Oversupply Issues
• DOMA Journal – Bali Today, 3 September 2026: room oversupply — Sanur strengthens, Ubud and most zones in the red
• Rise Real Bali – Bali real estate market 2026 analytics