Sanur Leads Bali Hotel Absorption as Ubud Faces Sharpest Decline

Denpasar — — Sanur posted Bali’s strongest hotel absorption balance in a new market monitor released in early September, while Ubud recorded the sharpest decline among the main corridors, according to reporting that summarised the study and a separate industry write-up that cited the same forecast figures.

The report defines absorption balance as the gap between growth in occupied-room demand and growth in room supply, meaning it measures how well demand is keeping pace with new capacity rather than revenue alone.

According to the reporting, Sanur logged a positive balance of 2.7 percentage points, followed by Jimbaran-Pecatu-Ungasan at 1.6 percentage points. Ubud was at minus 8.1 percentage points, with Kuta-Legian at minus 7.7 points, Canggu-Seminyak at minus 3.2 points and Nusa Dua-Tanjung Benoa at minus 2.7 points.

The same coverage said the report identified about 2,460 hotel rooms under construction across Bali as of 22 August 2026. It added that Sanur had no active hotel construction projects listed in the August snapshot, while Jimbaran-Pecatu-Ungasan had the largest pipeline at about 688 rooms.

Why Sanur stands out

Sanur’s advantage appears to come from restraint on the supply side as much as from demand strength. With no listed active hotel construction in the report snapshot, the corridor starts from a different position than areas that are set to receive hundreds of additional rooms in the next two years.

The same report projected Sanur to have the highest occupancy among the main Bali corridors in a moderate 2027 scenario, at 84.6 percent. The forecast put Kuta-Legian at 74.8 percent, Nusa Dua-Tanjung Benoa at 74.2 percent, Canggu-Seminyak at 70.6 percent, Jimbaran-Pecatu-Ungasan at 68.2 percent and Ubud at 61.7 percent.

In a downside scenario, the coverage said occupancy could fall to 47.7 percent in Ubud and 50.6 percent in Jimbaran-Pecatu-Ungasan, while Bali’s wider regional area could sink to 32.5 percent.

Ubud’s pressure is broader than occupancy

Ubud’s negative absorption balance does not mean every property is underperforming. A separate industry report on Bali’s hotel market said Ubud delivered the strongest RevPAR growth among the submarkets it tracked in 2025, helped by an 11 percent increase in average daily rate even as occupancy softened.

That distinction matters because RevPAR can rise when hotels lift room rates, even if they sell fewer rooms. In a market with stronger pricing power, a property can improve revenue performance while still facing weaker volume growth.

The island-wide context remains mixed. A 2026 Bali hotel market report cited in industry coverage said 2025 occupancy eased to 73.2 percent, while dollar-denominated average daily rate fell 2 percent and rupiah RevPAR was broadly flat. The same coverage said Bali received 6.95 million foreign arrivals in 2025, though arrivals through May 2026 were 1.77 percent lower than in the same period a year earlier.

What the forecasts mean

The 2027 occupancy figures are scenario-based forecasts, not a monthly occupancy series. They are intended to show how each corridor may perform after new supply enters the market, with outcomes varying according to tourism demand and the timing of project openings.

For investors and operators, the message is that Bali is no longer moving as one market. Sanur currently combines positive absorption, no listed active construction in the report snapshot and the highest projected 2027 occupancy among the main corridors.

By contrast, Ubud is facing a tighter mix of supply growth and demand pressure, even though some asset types in the area continue to defend rate and revenue better than the broader market.

That divergence suggests Bali’s hotel recovery is becoming more selective, with corridor position, product type and pipeline timing increasingly determining who benefits most from the island’s tourism demand.

Sources

• Bali Discovery
• Hotelier Indonesia
• Magnum Estate