BI survey shows Bali retail expectations remain optimistic in mid‑2026

Denpasar — — Retailers in Bali remain optimistic about sales over the coming months, with Bank Indonesia’s local office reporting strong real sales and rising expectations supported by tourism activity and holiday spending.

Achris Sarwani, head of Bank Indonesia’s Bali representative office, has said recent retail trends show sales in the province staying in the "optimistic" zone, as measured by the Real Sales Index (Indeks Penjualan Riil, IPR), which remained above 100 in mid‑2026 according to the central bank’s retail sales survey for Bali and supporting local media reports.

According to a report citing Bank Indonesia’s Bali survey, the Index of Sales Expectations (Indeks Ekspektasi Penjualan, IEP) for three months ahead rose to 190.0 for August 2026 from 172.0 for July 2026, indicating stronger confidence among retailers.

The same report noted that the IEP for six months ahead stood at a high level, showing that business players continued to believe retail sales would remain robust as Bali moves through the second half of 2026.

An index reading above 100 is interpreted by Bank Indonesia and local analysts as indicating optimism about future retail sales, while readings below 100 point to more cautious expectations.

• IEP, July 2026 (3 months ahead): 172.0
• IEP, August 2026 (3 months ahead): 190.0
• IEP, August 2026 (6 months ahead): in the optimistic zone above 100

Prices and tourism-linked demand

Retailers in Bali also expect general prices to rise in the months ahead, reflecting both domestic demand and tourism-driven spending.

According to statements from Bank Indonesia’s Bali office reported by local outlets, the Index of General Price Expectations (Indeks Ekspektasi Harga Umum, IEH) for August 2026 and November 2026 was projected at 188 and 200 respectively, suggesting that retailers anticipate higher prices over those periods.

Sarwani has linked the positive retail outlook to higher household consumption, increased mobility and tourism, as well as spending associated with religious holidays and school-related needs.

Local reports citing Bank Indonesia’s survey note that stronger activity in categories such as clothing, food and beverages, spare parts and accessories, cultural and recreation goods, and automotive fuels has contributed to the upbeat view among retailers.

Retail survey as an early indicator

Bank Indonesia’s Retail Sales Survey is conducted monthly and covers retailers in Denpasar and surrounding areas, providing an early indication of consumption trends and inflation pressures from the demand side.

The Bali results show that the province’s retail sector has previously benefited from long holiday periods and religious celebrations, including Galungan and Kuningan, which boost demand for fuel, clothing, food and beverages and other consumer goods.

While the expectations indices point to solid confidence across Bali’s retail sector, they measure sentiment rather than realised sales, and more complete data on actual retail turnover and household consumption will be needed to confirm whether tourism-led optimism is translating into broad-based growth across the island’s districts and business sizes.

Sources

• Kabarnusa – Denyut Ritel Bali Tetap Bergairah: Ditopang Liburan dan Hari Raya Galungan
• Bali Ilu – Juli 2026, Optimisme Penjualan Eceran Tetap Kuat Ditopang High Season Pariwisata dan Tahun Ajaran Baru
• RRI Denpasar – Optimisme Penjualan Eceran Tetap Kuat Didorong Momentum Hari Raya
• Bank Indonesia – Retail Sales Survey (report overview)