Bali’s 2025 population projection: what the official figure counts
BPS projects Bali’s 2025 population at 4,461,260 people. Here is what the figure counts, why it is not a census and how to read it by region.
By Mukmin John
Editor: Mursyid Sonsang
· 2 min read
Bali’s official population projection for 2025 is 4,461,260 people, according to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), 2025. That figure is a projection by sex and regency or municipality, not a new census count, while BPS’s 2025 statistical publication provides the wider reference framework for interpreting the island’s population.
How many people are projected to live in Bali?
BPS projects Bali’s 2025 population at 4,461,260 people, according to the BPS statistical table published in 2025. The table breaks the projection down by gender and by regency or municipality, allowing provincial and local totals to be read separately.
Is 4,461,260 a census result?
No. The BPS table is explicitly a population projection for 2025, so it should not be described as a census enumeration. BPS’s Bali Province in Figures 2025, published on 28 February 2025, is the province’s broader statistical reference publication.
Why does the distinction matter?
A projection estimates population for a specified year using demographic data and methods; a census counts residents through a population-enumeration exercise. Treating the projection as a census can make comparisons with other years or administrative areas misleading.
What can the BPS data be used for?
The gender and regency or municipality breakdown supports analysis of how Bali’s projected population is distributed across its administrative areas. The BPS figures can therefore provide a consistent baseline for explaining demand for public services, infrastructure and regional planning without presenting the estimate as a headcount conducted in 2025.
Which sources provide the official context?
BPS’s population-projection table supplies the specific 2025 figure, while its Bali Province in Figures 2025 publication supplies the wider statistical context. The Bali Provincial Tourism Office separately publishes 2025 tourism statistics, showing why population data and visitor data should be treated as different measures rather than combined.
Sources
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