BNPB warns Bali’s extreme flood risk could recur despite tourism recovery

Denpasar — Indonesia’s National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) has warned that the severe flash floods that struck Bali in September 2025 could recur, citing extreme rainfall of more than 200 millimetres per day at multiple locations and ongoing hydrometeorological risks, while emphasising that the island remains open to visitors according to recent official and media reports.

BNPB’s assessment follows deadly flash floods and landslides that affected much of Bali in early September 2025, described by local authorities as among the most serious in a decade. Heavy rain on 9–10 September caused rivers to overflow, inundating at least 120 neighbourhoods across nine cities and districts, including Denpasar and regencies such as Jembrana, Gianyar and Badung, according to statements attributed to BNPB spokesperson Abdul Muhari.

Hydrological data compiled by BNPB and the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) show that daily rainfall reached extreme levels in several parts of Bali during the event. BMKG reported one-day totals of 385.5 mm in Jembrana, 373.8 mm in Tampaksiring, 316.6 mm in Karangasem, 296 mm in Klungkung and 284.6 mm in Abiansemal, with other stations in western Denpasar, Petang, Kerambitan and Padangbai also recording more than 200 mm of rain. Rainfall above 150 mm per day is classified as extreme in Indonesia’s climatological guidance.

Flood impacts across Bali

BNPB reported that the September 2025 floods paralysed parts of Bali, including Denpasar and several regencies, after heavy rain fell from Tuesday 9 September. According to a BNPB bulletin and subsequent media coverage, floodwaters and landslides affected Badung, Tabanan, Karangasem, Jembrana, Gianyar, Klungkung and Denpasar, with damage to homes, roads and bridges.

Fatalities and displacement were significant. Coverage citing BNPB and local officials reported that at least 18 people died in Bali, with additional victims missing, while hundreds of residents were evacuated to temporary shelters such as schools, mosques and village halls. Floodwaters began to recede in parts of Denpasar and surrounding areas by 12 September 2025, and major roads gradually reopened as emergency operations shifted towards infrastructure repairs.

BNPB’s warning on recurrence risk

In commentary reported by Indonesian media, Abdul Muhari of BNPB’s disaster data and information centre has highlighted that large floods have recurrence periods that can span decades, and that Bali’s recent disaster should not be treated as a one-off event. BNPB has stated that it is reviewing historical disaster records and rainfall data to strengthen long-term mitigation and development planning, including better accounting for river basin capacity and environmental limits.

The agency’s position is that Bali’s tourism recovery should proceed alongside preparations for future hydrometeorological hazards, rather than assuming that extreme rain and flooding will not return. This includes coordination with local governments and security forces to improve early warning systems, emergency response and infrastructure resilience.

Conditions and travel considerations

Indonesian weather outlooks for September 2026 suggest that Bali is currently experiencing generally low to moderate rainfall, with most of the island forecast to see 0–150 mm of rain per ten-day period, below the extreme levels recorded during the 2025 floods. National early-warning maps list Bali among regions to monitor for high tides and coastal flooding, particularly along the Gianyar, Badung, Denpasar, Tabanan, Klungkung and Jembrana coasts later in September 2026.

Recent tourism-focused reporting notes that Bali remains considered safe for vacations, even as officials urge residents and visitors to exercise caution during episodes of heavy rain, landslides and strong winds. Local police and disaster authorities have advised avoiding activities in disaster-prone areas and paying attention to traffic safety when driving in extreme weather.

For travellers, BNPB’s recurrence warning is a risk assessment, not a blanket prediction that flooding will hit all parts of Bali on a specific date. Visitors are advised to monitor official updates from BNPB, local disaster management agencies and BMKG, and to confirm transport and accommodation arrangements directly with operators during periods of heavy rain, as impacts can vary sharply between river basins and districts.

Sources

• BMKG – Cuaca Ekstrem Masih Mengintai, BMKG Ingatkan Kesiapsiagaan Nasional
• BNPB – Buletin Info Bencana September 2025
• Katadata – BNPB Ingatkan Banjir Bali Berpotensi Terulang
• CNA.id – Banjir terparah satu dekade, Bali deklarasi tanggap darurat
• CNBC TV18 – Bali floods: 20 dead, 6 missing; emergency response on
• Bernama – 23 Killed, 5 Missing In Severe Floods Across Indonesia
• BBC News Indonesia – Banjir Bali terparah sepanjang satu dekade, korban meninggal bertambah menjadi 16 orang
• Metro TV News – BMKG Peringatkan Potensi Banjir Rob hingga 2 Oktober, Ini Daftar Wilayahnya
• The Bali Sun – Bali Confirmed Safe For Tourist Vacations As Hundreds Killed In Nationwide Flooding